In Bolivia, autonomy vote deepens divisions

A bid by wealthy Santa Cruz province for greater powers is expected to pass, setting the stage for a clash with leftist President Evo Morales, whom detractors accuse of authoritarianism.

By Patrick J. McDonnell, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer 
May 4, 2008

SANTA CRUZ, BOLIVIA -- Voters in this restive Bolivian province go to the polls today in a bid for greater autonomy that is a direct challenge to the leftist government of President Evo Morales.

The president calls the election an illegal maneuver by wealthy "oligarchs" intent on breaking away from Bolivia and creating a pro-U.S. protectorate in the country's resource-rich eastern lowlands.

But supporters say the balloting is meant to preserve regional rights in the face of what they call a march toward authoritarianism and expropriation of private land. They expect autonomy to strengthen their hand with the federal government on thorny issues such as land reform, distribution of natural gas royalties and a new constitution.

"We are not separatists. We are loyal Bolivians," said congressman Walter Javier Arrazola, a pro-autonomy lawmaker in Santa Cruz. "But we don't believe in Evo Morales' 'neo-communist' plan for our country."

Bolivia has become a key battleground in the ideological tug of war between the Bush administration and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a key ally of Morales. Like Chavez, Morales has nationalized key industries, assailed alleged U.S. meddling and sought to rewrite his country's constitution.

Chavez has labeled Bolivia's autonomy vote "Operation Kosovo," referring to the breakaway former province of Serbia. He and Cuba's Fidel Castro have said Bolivia faces a grave danger of breakup.

Morales has publicly alleged that the U.S. ambassador in La Paz, Philip Goldberg, heads a "conspiracy" to oust him.

U.S. officials deny abetting any plot to topple the democratically elected Morales, who rose to prominence representing growers of coca, from which cocaine is made.

Washington says it supports Bolivia's territorial integrity.

"We are committed to the territorial unity of all the countries of the region," the State Department's top Latin America diplomat, Thomas Shannon, said in an interviewpublished Friday in the Madrid daily El Pais. "At the same time we are in favor of the expression in a democratic manner of the interests of the different groups and sectors."

Polls indicate the autonomy measure will pass by a wide margin, perhaps garnering as much as 70% of the votes in Santa Cruz, home to about 2.5 million of Bolivia's 9 million people. Anti-autonomy leaders are urging residents to abstain from voting.

Both sides have pledged to avoid violence. Similar autonomy votes are scheduled in three other provinces in the next few weeks.

Autonomy would allow Santa Cruz and other regions to function somewhat like U.S. states, with separate police forces, legislatures and a say in the distribution of funds such as hydrocarbon royalties that now go to the government in La Paz, the capital. That would be a marked change in highly centralized Bolivia and could dilute the power of Morales and future presidents.

The autonomy movement has taken off in relatively prosperous lowland provinces, where much of the nation's agricultural wealth and vast natural gas reserves are concentrated.

The dispute underscores deep divisions between the subtropical lowlands and the chilly and largely impoverished Andean high plains that constitute Morales' base.

The regional divide has a strong ethnic backdrop: Morales, of Aymara Indian heritage, has championed the cause of fellow indigenous highlanders, long treated as second-class citizens in Bolivia.

But Andean Indians are less prominent in Santa Cruz and other lowland zones, where the population consists of a broad mix of people with indigenous, European and other bloodlines. Each side has accused the other of recklessly dealing the race card.

Morales calls himself a champion of indigenous rights, but critics here say he is fostering a volatile struggle of race and class in South America's poorest nation.

"Evo Morales is setting one group against another," said Arrazola, the pro-autonomy Santa Cruz congressman. "This is a dangerous path for Bolivia."

Supporters say autonomy will bring economic benefits, reducing the continued flow of Bolivians abroad, especially to Europe and Argentina.

"Our enemy is poverty," said Santa Cruz Gov. Ruben Costas. "And we want to try to defeat it."

patrick.mcdonnell @latimes.com

Cyclone kills at least 351 in Myanmar

From the Associated Press 

8:58 AM PDT, May 4, 2008

latimes.com 

YANGON, Myanmar -- A powerful cyclone killed more than 350 people, destroyed thousands of homes and knocked out power in the country's largest city, state-run media said today.

Tropical Cyclone Nargis struck early Saturday with winds of up to 120 mph, the military-run Myaddy television station said.

Shari Villarosa, the top American diplomat in Yangon, said trees and electricity lines were down in the city after the storm's whipping winds and torrential downpour.

"Our Burmese staff have lost their roofs," she told The Associated Press. "There is major devastation throughout the city."

Five regions of the impoverished Southeast Asian country have been declared disaster zones.

At least 351 people were killed, including 162 who lived on Haing Gyi island off the country's southwest coast, state-run television said. Many of the others died in the low-lying Irrawaddy delta.

"The Irrawaddy delta was hit extremely hard not only because of the wind and rain but because of the storm surge," said Chris Kaye, the U.N.'s acting humanitarian coordinator in Yangon. "The villages there have reportedly been completely flattened."

State television reported that in the Irrawaddy's Labutta township, 75 percent of the buildings had collapsed.

The U.N. planned to send teams Monday to assess the damage, Kaye said. Initial assessment efforts have been hampered by roads clogged with debris and downed phone lines, he said.

"At the moment, we have such poor opportunity for communications that I can't really tell you very much," Kaye said.

Witnesses in Yangon said the storm's 120 mph winds blew the roofs off hundreds of houses, damaged hotels, schools and hospitals, and cut electricity to the entire city.

The state-owned newspaper New Light of Myanmar reported today that the international airport in Yangon remained shut. Domestic flights have been diverted to the airport in Mandalay, it said.

"It's a bad situation. Almost all the houses are smashed. People are in a terrible situation," said a U.N. official in Yangon, who requested anonymity because she was not authorized to speak to the media.

"All the roads are blocked. There is no water. There is no electricity," she said.

Yangon residents ventured out today to buy construction materials to repair their homes. The price of gasoline jumped from $2.50 to $10 a gallon on the black market and everything from eggs to construction supplies had tripled, residents said.

Some people expressed anger that the military-led government in Myanmar, also known as Burma, had done little so far to help with the cleanup.

"Where are all those uniformed people who are always ready to beat civilians?" said one man, who refused to be identified for fear of retribution. "They should come out in full force and help clean up the areas and restore electricity."

The Forum for Democracy in Burma and other dissident groups outside of Myanmar called on the international community to provide urgent humanitarian assistance and urged the military junta to allow aid groups to operate freely -- something it has been reluctant to do in the past.

"International expertise in dealing with natural disasters is urgently required. The military regime is ill-prepared to deal with the aftermath of the cyclone," said Naing Aung, secretary general of the Thailand-based forum.

A Western diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said it was difficult for other countries to help unless they received a request from Myanmar's military rulers.

"We have to be welcomed by the host government," the diplomat said. "The international community is willing to provide humanitarian assistance. There has been tremendous destruction. At the end of the day, the government needs to let in the assistance."

Michael Annear, a regional disaster management delegate for the International Federation of the Red Cross in Bangkok, said his agency had teams in Yangon today distributing shelter kits and other relief supplies.

The cyclone came at a delicate time for Myanmar, which is scheduled to hold a referendum May 10 on the country's military-backed draft constitution. Authorities have not yet said whether they would postpone the vote.

A military-managed national convention was held intermittently for 14 years to lay down guidelines for the country's new constitution.

The new constitution is supposed to be followed in 2010 by a general election. Both votes are elements of a "roadmap to democracy" drawn up by the junta, which has been in power for two decades.

Critics say the draft constitution is designed to cement military power and have urged citizens to vote no.

Obama says Clinton's tough talk on Iran too much like Bush's

From the Associated Press 
11:31 AM PDT, May 4, 2008

latimes.com

INDIANAPOLIS -- Barack Obama likened Hillary Rodham Clinton to President Bush for threatening to "totally obliterate" Iran if it attacks Israel and called her gas-tax holiday a gimmick as he tried to fend off her challenge ahead of two pivotal Democratic primaries.

Clinton, in turn, stood by both her comment on Iran and her tax proposal as she gave chase to the front-runner in Indiana and North Carolina.

The competitors squabbled over the issues -- one foreign, one domestic -- from a short distance, first during separate appearances on today news shows and then as they courted voters for Tuesday's primaries.

"This is the final push," Clinton told a cheering crowd of volunteer canvassers in Fort Wayne, emboldened by her Pennsylvania victory two weeks ago as well as polls that show her in a close race in Indiana and narrowing Obama's lead in North Carolina.

Obama, for his part, was hoping that wins Tuesday would stop the bleeding from a difficult campaign stretch. Maneuvering for advantage, he sought to portray Clinton as politically motivated on both Iran and her gas-tax plan.

On NBC's "Meet the Press," Obama opened a new line of criticism and seized on an answer Clinton gave when asked last month what she would do if Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons on her watch.

"I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran," Clinton said April 22 in an interview with ABC. "In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them."

Obama said, "It's not the language we need right now, and I think it's language reflective of George Bush."

Suggesting that his rival was a political opportunist, Obama added: "Senator Clinton during the course of the campaign has said we shouldn't speculate about Iran, we've got to be cautious when we're running for president, she scolded me on a couple of occasions on this issue, yet a few days before an election, she's willing to use that language."

Clinton, asked on ABC's "This Week" about Obama's criticism, said she had no regrets about her comment.

"Why would I have any regrets? I'm asked a question about what I would do if Iran attacked our ally ... and, yes, we would have massive retaliation against Iran," Clinton said. "I don't think they will do that, but I sure want to make it abundantly clear to them that they would face a tremendous cost if they did such a thing."

Turning up the heat on an issue closer to home, Obama on NBC called Clinton's proposal for a gas-tax holiday this summer a "classic Washington gimmick" that wouldn't solve anything and would save only $28 for each person. He opposes the temporary suspension of the federal tax and argued that Clinton was pandering for votes.

To underscore that, Obama rolled out a new TV ad for Indiana and North Carolina that derided "Clinton gimmicks that help big oil."

"More low-road attacks from Hillary Clinton. Now she's pushing a bogus gas-tax gimmick. Experts say it'll just boost oil industry profits," the ad says. "Clinton aides admit it won't do much for you -- but would help her politically."

Clinton dismissed the criticism and disputed Obama's suggestions that she and Republican candidate John McCain were the same because they both support a gas-tax holiday.

"Senator McCain has said take off the gas tax, don't pay for it, throw us further into deficit and debt. That is not what I've proposed," Clinton told ABC, adding that she wants the oil companies to pay the gas tax instead of consumers this summer.

Many economists oppose the plan and Clinton demurred when asked to name one who supports it. "I'm not going to put my lot in with economists because I know if we did it right ... it would be implemented effectively," she said.

Focusing on Indiana, Clinton and Obama nearly tripped over each other throughout the day. They stayed overnight in Indianapolis hotels one block apart. They were greeting voters within miles of each other in Fort Wayne. By evening, they planned to return to the capital city for the Indiana Democratic Party's Jefferson Jackson Dinner.

North Carolina, too, was to get some last-minute attention. Both candidates shuffled their schedules to dart back to the state on Monday, reflecting the tightening contest there

Obama is ahead in the hunt for convention delegates -- 1,742.5 to 1,607.5, according to an Associated Press count today -- but he has faced a spate of troubles over the past month. That has Clinton sensing an opening. Still, the delegate math works in Obama's favor, and it will be difficult for Clinton to overtake him.

Nevertheless, Clinton suggested anew she had no intention of dropping out, saying on ABC, "When the process finishes in early June, people can look at all the various factors and decide who would be the strongest candidate" to go up against McCain in the fall.

Standard & Poor's Lowers Vietnam's Credit Rating

By Amy Kazmin

Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, May 3, 2008; Page D03

BANGKOK, May 2 -- The ratings agency Standard & Poor's revised its outlook on Vietnam's sovereign credit rating Friday to negative from stable, the first major sign of international anxiety over Hanoi's ability to cool its overheated economy.

In a statement, the agency cited risks of "widespread economic and financial distress" as Vietnam's Communist rulers struggle to rein in excessive bank lending and spending by state enterprises.

"Things appear to be quite volatile," said Kim Eng Tan, S&P's sovereign analyst. "The government seems to be intent on slowing things down, but the task will be quite complicated."

Vietnam, with one of Asia's fastest-growing economies in the past few years, has been wrestling with skyrocketing inflation, which hit 21 percent in April, and a ballooning trade deficit.

The soaring prices, which are fueling worker discontent and demands for higher wages, are blamed on excessive credit growth by the loosely regulated banking system, especially smaller private banks that have lent aggressively while seeking to build their presence in the market.

S&P has forecast that domestic credit will reach 95 percent of gross domestic product by the end of 2008, up from 71 percent in 2006.

Much of the bank lending has been poured into real estate speculation and a wave of public investment by state enterprises, which have also been branching into real estate and other non-core business activities at a time when the economy has expanded about 8.5 percent a year.

Alarmed by the skyrocketing prices, Hanoi recently said battling inflation was its top priority. The government pared its growth targets to about 7 percent and appealed to agencies and state enterprises to curb unnecessary spending.

S&P warned of the potential for "policy missteps" and banking-system distress that could force an expensive government bailout.

"A lot of these banks have grown their balance sheets quite a lot," Tan said. "If one of them gets into trouble, concerns could spread across a lot of banks. That may force the government to step in to help out, and its own debt will have to go up quite substantially."

Despite these near-term risks, S&P affirmed Vietnam's credit rating at BB/B for foreign currency and BB+/B for local currency, citing "good prospects for sustained economic growth" driven partially by a wave of foreign investment.

The agency said Vietnam's ratings could be lowered if the probability of a banking system crisis rises. However, it said the ratings outlook could improve "on indications that the economy was rising to a sustainable growth path."

Other ratings agencies have not changed their positions on Vietnam. Moody's maintains a positive outlook, putting a Ba3 rating on the country's long-term debt in both foreign and local currencies. Fitch rates Vietnam's outlook as stable.

Cuba lifts ban on home computers

The first legalised home computers have gone on sale in Cuba, but a ban remains on internet access.

By Michael Voss
BBC News, Havana

This is the latest in a series of restrictions on daily life which President Raul Castro has lifted in recent weeks.

Crowds formed at the Carlos III shopping centre in Havana, though most had come just to look.

The desktop computers cost almost $800 (£400), in a country where the average wage is under $20 (£10) a month.

But some Cubans do have access to extra income, much of it from money sent by relatives living abroad.

Since taking over the presidency in February, Raul Castro has ended a range of restrictions and allowed Cubans access to previously banned consumer goods.

In recent weeks thousands of Cubans have snapped up mobile phones and DVD players.

But only now have the first computer stocks arrived.

Internet access remains restricted to certain workplaces, schools and universities on the island.

The government says it is unable to connect to the giant undersea fibre-optic cables because of the US trade embargo. All online connections today are via satellite which has limited bandwidth and is expensive to use.

Cuba's anti-American ally, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, is laying a new cable under the Caribbean.

It remains unclear whether, once the connection is completed, the authorities will then allow unrestricted access to the world wide web.

A horas del referéndum en Santa Cruz, la OEA respaldó al gobierno de Evo Morales

Tras siete horas de debates, esta madrugada aprobó un documento a favor de las instituciones democráticas y de las autoridades elegidas en Bolivia. Además, instó al Ejecutivo y a las autoridades de esa región a que agoten todas las instancias de diálogo.

clarin.com /Argentina

A horas de que se lleve a cabo el referéndum en Santa Cruz, la Organización de Estados Americanos (OEA) expresó su solidaridad con el gobierno boliviano del presidente Evo Morales y rechazó la ruptura de la integridad territorial del país. Lo hizo a través de una resolución que terminó de redactarse esta madrugada tras siete horas de debates.

En el texto consensuado, los países miembros de la OEA expresaron "su solidaridad y respaldo al Pueblo de Bolivia, al Gobierno Constitucional dirigido por el Presidente Evo Morales Ayma, a la institucionalidad democrática y a las autoridades elegidas por el pueblo boliviano".

Además, el Consejo Permanente de ese organismo rechazó "cualquier intento de ruptura" del orden constitucional y de la integridad territorial del país, al tiempo que llamó "a todos los actores" a que "sus acciones se enmarquen en el respeto al estado de derecho, excluyendo cualquier acción que pueda llevar a la ruptura de la paz, del orden constitucional y afectar la convivencia entre los bolivianos".

Los habitantes de Santa Cruz -que concentra el 30% del PIB boliviano- irán a votar mañana para definir si se aprueba su estatuto de gobierno autónomo, una suerte de Constitución local, confrontada con el presidente Evo Morales, que calificó la consulta como "ilegal" y "secesionista".

El canciller boliviano, David Choquehuanca, presente en la reunión de la OEA, consideró la resolución de la OEA como un éxito diplomático, aunque aquella no incluyó el rechazo explícito al referéndum, tal como lo había solicitado. "Es importante para nuestra constitucionalidad, para la integridad y para la estabilidad de Bolivia", dijo Choquehuanca tras aprobarse la resolución. Y agregó: "Recoge casi todos los planteamientos de Bolivia y vela por la unidad del país".

En el referéndum del 2 de julio de 2006, las provincias del oriente boliviano votaron masivamente a favor de la autonomía. Sin embargo, la Asamblea Constituyente la incluyó luego en la nueva Carta Magna con competencias reducidas. Al comenzar 2008, Evo Morales y los gobernadores aceptaron reunirse para tratar de alcanzar un "gran acuerdo nacional", pero ante la falta de avances se derivaron las discrepancias a comisiones especiales que tampoco lograron acuerdos.

Conservative wins London mayoral race

A two-term Labor incumbent is out and a lawmaker best known for irreverent jibes and talking on a cellphone while riding his bike is in.

By Kim Murphy, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
May 3, 2008

LONDON -- Londoners threw out their liberal two-term mayor Friday in favor of colorful Conservative politician Boris Johnson in municipal balloting in Britain that handed the governing Labor Party its worst local elections defeat since the 1960s.

The outcome putsa 43-year-old lawmaker best known for his irreverent jibes and disheveled mop of blond hair at the helm of one of Europe's preeminent cities and host of the 2012 Summer Olympics.

"I do not for one minute believe that this election shows that London has been transformed overnight into a Conservative city," Johnson said. "But I do hope that it does show that the Conservatives have changed into a party that can again be trusted after 30 years with the greatest, most cosmopolitan . . . city on Earth."

The voting, a combination of voters' first and second preferences, gave Johnson 1,168,738 votes, to incumbent Ken Livingstone's 1,028,966.

Johnson, a former magazine editor and classics scholar, became widely popular across Britain as a result of his humorous appearances on a popular TV news quiz show; he is famous for riding around London on his bicycle while talking on his mobile phone.

"Just as I will never vote to ban hunting, so I will never vote to abolish the free-born Englishman's time-hallowed and immemorial custom, dating back as far as 1990 or so, of cycling while talking on a mobile," he wrote when a law was proposed banning the practice.

Johnson reined in his mischievous side in a largely subdued campaign in which he called for cracking down on the capital's burgeoning youthful gun and knife crime, scrapping the unpopular articulated buses he calls "18-meter-long socialist frankfurter buses," and canceling a planned charge of $50 a day for drivers of high-carbon-emissions vehicles entering the central city.

Still, many Londoners are put off by his bumbling, buffoon-like persona. "He's like a clown . . . he's an absolute joke," said Jim O'Hagen, 19.

Johnson said he would move to allay voters' concerns. "I know there will be many whose pencils hovered for an instant before putting an X in my box," he said. "I will work flat out to regain and to justify your confidence."

In turning out Livingstone, a fixture in London leftist politics since the 1970s, voters joined a tide across England and Wales that saw the Labor Party lose 331 of more than 3,900 local council seats up for grabs, slipping to third place by receiving just 24% of the votes cast, behind the Conservatives, with 44%, and the Liberal Democrats, with 25%. The remaining votes were split among several smaller parties.

Losing the mayoralty of London and its 7.2 million residents to the Conservatives for the first time since the post was created in 2000 was a significant symbolic blow to the ruling party. Analysts said the victory would give the Tories a valuable platform from which to challenge Labor in the next national elections, expected probably in 2010.

The balloting was widely seen as a dismal referendum on the government of Prime Minister Gordon Brown, whose support has ebbed as Britain has slipped toward an economic downturn and voters have grown increasingly anxious over higher costs for housing, food, transport and taxes.

"There's been mistakes made by the national party who are in government, and as local councilors, you take the flak," said Phil Mould, head of the Labor Party in the central English county of Redditch, a Labor Party stronghold for the better part of 25 years that fell to the Conservatives.

Brown, who was facing his first elections as party leader after taking over from longtime Labor Prime Minister Tony Blair less than a year ago, conceded that they had not gone as the party had hoped.

"It's clear to me that this has been a disappointing night, indeed a bad night for Labor," Brown said Friday, as the results of Thursday's balloting flowed in. "We have lessons to learn from that, and then we will move forward."

Tory leader David Cameron said the election results were not only a rejection of Brown's government but a voice of support for Conservative policies.

"This is a very big moment for the Conservative Party, but I don't want anyone to think that we would deserve to win an election just on the back of a failing government," he said. "I want us to really prove to people that we can make the changes they want to see."

Some analysts cautioned against reading too much into Labor's dismal showing. Twice during midterm elections under Blair's leadership, the party plunged as low as 26% to 28% of the vote but recovered with big general election wins, said George Jones, professor emeritus of government at the London School of Economics.

Still, Brown's leadership remains an obstacle, Jones said.

"Whereas Mr. Blair was a superb communicator, something like Bill Clinton, whose presence and speeches could inspire and make people feel good and optimistic, Mr. Brown whenever he speaks looks morose and miserable, and he spreads a mood of misery and pessimism," he said. "I think the Labor Party feel, 'We've made a mistake.' "

kim.murphy@latimes.com

Times staff writer Thea Chard contributed to this report.

Zimbabwe election results call for presidential runoff

The MDC opposition party, which says its candidate won the first time, accuses Mugabe of 'grand theft.' It will decide this weekend whether to take part in new voting.

By Robyn Dixon, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
May 3, 2008

JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA -- Zimbabwe's opposition Friday accused President Robert Mugabe of "grand theft" after long-delayed official results of the nation's presidential election showed no candidate won outright and a runoff must be held.

The opposition's national executive will decide this weekend whether to take part in a second round of balloting even though the party insists that its candidate won the first time.

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission announced the presidential results Friday, more than a month after the election. They showed that opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai received 47.9% of the vote to Mugabe's 43.2%. Ruling party defector Simba Makoni received 8.3%.

The constitution calls for a runoff if no one gets 50% of the votes plus one.

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change has repeatedly ruled out a runoff, claiming that Tsvangirai received more than 50% of the vote in the March 29 balloting based on results posted outside polling stations. But if he doesn't participate, election officials could declare Mugabe the winner.

Pressed on whether the MDC would allow that to happen, party Secretary-General Tendai Biti said Friday, "We're fully alive and we will not allow Mugabe to steal it." But he also said that holding a runoff would be "folly."

"It's quite clear that there's been an attempt at grand theft, grand kleptocracy, if you like," Biti said at a Johannesburg news conference. "The issue of a runoff is a legal myth, a factual myth, to the extent that we have won this presidential election."

He said an addendum to the constitution gives victory to the top vote-getter, despite the constitution's requirement that the winner have 50% of the ballots plus one.

Biti gave the opposition's own presidential tally, indicating that Tsvangirai received 50.3% of the vote, and said the electoral commission figures in effect had stolen 80,000 votes from the MDC candidate. However, a count released by the party April 2 had him with only 49% of the vote.

Asked Friday about the difference in the two sets of MDC figures, Biti said: "There was a discrepancy. What we've simply done was to update the figures."

Biti indicated that the MDC was willing to form a government of national unity, on the condition Mugabe retired. He said Mugabe's safety and assets would be guaranteed.

Both the U.S. and Britain questioned the credibility of the election results, given the long delay in their release.

"That final tally, I think, has rather serious credibility problems given the inexplicably long delays and some of the postelection irregularities that have occurred," State Department spokesman Tom Casey said in Washington.

Britain's Foreign Office said in a statement that a rerun would not be fair unless international monitors were present. The European Union also has called for observers.

Observers from the regional grouping the Southern African Development Community on Friday reported an increase in violence and killings since the election. South African President Thabo Mbeki told church leaders Friday that he would send a team to Zimbabwe to investigate reports of violence.

robyn.dixon@latimes.com

Por decreto, Evo Morales toma el control de la filial boliviana de Repsol YPF

El Estado boliviano pasa a controlar más del 50% de las acciones de la petrolera. "Hoy se consolida la nacionalización de los hidrocarburos", dijo el presidente en un multitudinario acto. El gobierno de Morales sólo llegó al acuerdo con Repsol-YPF, aunque busca también recuperar Chaco, de Panamerican Energy, la transportadora de hidrocarburos Transredes, y la anglo-holandesa Shell.

EL MUNDO
EL CLARIN EN LINEA

El gobierno boliviano asumió hoy el control de la Petrolera Andina, subsidiaria de Repsol-YPF, con la compra de las acciones que le permiten a Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) la mayoría del paquete accionario.

El documento de compraventa fue firmado por el representante de la hispano-argentina Repsol-YPF, Tomás García Blanco, con su homólogo de la estatal boliviana, Santos Ramírez, en presencia del presidente Evo Morales.

El ministro de Hidrocarburos, Carlos Villegas, anunció la transferencia al estado boliviano del 50% más uno del paquete accionario de la empresa petrolera Andina, filial de la española Repsol YPF, lo que permitirá a la estatal Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) compartir la administración de 12 campos petroleros.

Repsol se mantendrá como socia de la estatal, señaló Villegas. Y a través de un comunicado, la compañía afirmó que se mantienen los contratos que posee en el área de exploración y producción en el bloque Caipipendi, donde se encuentra el campo Margarita, en Tarija, además de los campos Surubi-Paloma, en el Bloque Mamoré de Cochabamba.

El anuncio se produjo después de varias horas de una reunión de emergencia del presidente Evo Morales con sus ministros, tras cumplirse el miércoles el plazo que dio el gobierno boliviano a cuatro transnacionales petroleras para transferir sus acciones a la empresa estatal. Hasta ahora, Repsol-YPF fue la única que firmó para mantener sus operaciones en el país andino.

Villegas no se pronunció en relación a que ocurrirá con las otras tres petroleras: Chaco de la británica British Petroleum, de exploración y explotación igual que Andina, y la transportadora Transredes gestionada por la británica Ashmore y la Compañía Logística de Hidrocarburos Boliviana, de capitales peruanos y alemanes.

La firma del convenio de compra de acciones con ejecutivos de la empresa española pone fin a dos años de negociaciones, después de la nacionalización de hidrocarburos. El presidente Morales agradeció al gobierno español por facilitar las negociaciones y puso a Repsol como ''símbolo de empresa que dialoga y

Chávez expropia la acería Sidor

El presidente venezolano no revela la indemnización que recibirá la multinacional italo-argentina Techint

CLODOVALDO HERNÁNDEZ - Caracas - 02/05/2008- EL PAIS

El presidente de Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, ha decretado la expropiación de la acería Ternium-Sidor, perteneciente a la internacional italo-argentina Techint, tras fracasar las negociaciones para un acuerdo en torno al precio de la empresa.

Chávez había dado el domingo un ultimátum a los representantes de la firma para que hicieran una solicitud razonable al Gobierno, pues en las primeras reuniones exigieron 4.000 millones de dólares. “¿Será que creen que somos pendejos [tontos]? Esa empresa no vale esa cantidad de dinero. Si se ponen cómicos, dictaré un decreto de expropiación”, dijo el mandatario y otorgó un plazo que venció el martes. El miércoles por la noche, en un acto convocado para anunciar los aumentos salariales otorgados con motivo del Día del Trabajador, Chávez cumplió su palabra y firmó el decreto.

En el texto legal se establece que una comisión presidencial tomará el control de las instalaciones de la empresa, enclavada en Puerto Ordaz, en el Estado sureño de Bolívar, muy cerca de las principales minas de hierro del país. El presidente no ofreció detalles acerca del monto de la indemnización que el Estado pagará a la multinacional. Ésta había adquirido Sidor por 1.500 millones de dólares cuando fue privatizada, en 1997.

La idea de renacionalizar Sidor venía planteándose desde hace varios años. Chávez había recriminado varias veces a la empresa que destinara casi todo el producto terminado a las exportaciones y desatendiera las demandas de la industria metalmecánica nacional, que depende en más de un 80% de los bienes producidos por la acería.

En los últimos meses, la situación se complicó por el conflicto laboral que Ternium-Sidor mantuvo con sus obreros, agrupados en el Sindicato Único de Trabajadores de la Industria Siderúrgica y Similares (Sutiss).El conflicto puso de manifiesto la realidad laboral de la siderúrgica: decenas de miles de empleados habían sido “tercerizados”, es decir, empleados por empresas que prestaban servicios a Ternium-Sidor, mediante contratos individuales muy deficientes.

Los trabajadores clamaron por la intervención del Gobierno, especialmente después de que éste emprendiera una segunda oleada de nacionalizaciones, que ha incluido la compra de empresas de productos lácteos, cadenas de almacenamiento refrigerado y cemento. Chávez atendió el llamamiento de los sindicalistas y ordenó la adquisición de la acería, primero por vía conciliatoria y luego de manera forzosa.

En su discurso del miércoles, Chávez exigió a los trabajadores que ayuden al Gobierno a transformar Sidor en una empresa socialista, pues advirtió que, si esto no se logra, la nacionalización no tendrá ningún sentido.

Bush, el presidente más impopular en la historia moderna de EE UU

El 71% de los estadounidenses rechaza su gestión al frente de la Casa Blanca, y rompe la marca que poseían Richard Nixon y Harry Truman, según una encuesta de CNN

ELPAIS.com - Washington - 01/05/2008

George W. Bush es el presidente más impopular de la historia reciente de EE UU. Una encuesta de CNN/Opinion Research Corp. difundida este jueves revela que el 71% de los norteamericanos desaprueba la gestión de Bush al frente de la Casa Blanca.

"Ningún presidente ha tenido un índice de desaprobación tan alto en alguna encuesta de CNN o Gallup. De hecho, ésta es la primera vez que el nivel de reprobación ha superado la marca del 70%", ha dicho Keating Holland, director de encuestas de la cadena estadounidense CNN.

"El índice de aprobación de Bush, que se sitúa en 28% en nuestra nueva encuesta, continúa siendo mejor que los marcados por Harry Truman y Richard Nixon [22% y 24%, respectivamente], pero esos presidentes jamás alcanzaron un nivel de desaprobación de 70%", ha agregado Holland.

Según CNN, la anterior marca máxima de desaprobación establecida por una encuesta de la cadena fue establecida por Truman, con 67% en enero de 1952.

El analista político de CNN, Bill Schneider, agrega que Bush es más impopular que Nixon antes de renunciar como presidente en agosto de 1974, cuando tenía una desaprobación de 66%.

La encuesta también indica que el nivel de apoyo a la Guerra de Irak ha caído a niveles récord. El 30% de los consultados está a favor del conflicto mientras que el 68% se opone. Estas cifras se publican cuando se cumple el quinto aniversario de la famosa frase de Bush "Misión cumplida", cuando dio por finalizada las grandes operaciones militares tras la invasión de Irak.

La encuesta fue realizada por teléfono entre el lunes y el miércoles de esta semana a 1.008 adultos estadounidenses y tiene un margen de error de 3 puntos porcentuales.

Brasil entra en el club de los países seguros

La agencia Standard&Poors mejora su evaluación de riesgo

JUAN ARIAS - Río de Janeiro - 02/05/2008- EL PAIS

Uno de los sueños del presidente brasileño, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, se ha cumplido. Brasil ha entrado en el club de los países seguros para invertir, después de que la agencia internacional de clasificación de riesgo Standard&Poor's (S&P) anunciara que ha elevado el índice de credibilidad de los títulos del Gobierno en moneda extranjera desde BB+ (todavía en la zona de riesgo) a BBB- (capacidad adecuada para cumplir con sus compromisos financieros). La agencia Fitch también ha anunciado que está estudiando la revisión de su calificación.

La nueva situación facilita que los inversores que huyen de los mercados especulativos puedan invertir tranquilos en este país. Hasta ahora, Brasil era el único del llamado grupo Bric de grandes países emergentes —al que pertenecen también Rusia, India y China— que aún no había entrado en la categoría de naciones con inversiones seguras.

El informe de S&P destaca la “madurez de las instituciones y del sistema politico de Brasil, evidenciada por el alivio de las cargas fiscales y de la deuda externa”, además de la “política monetaria conservadora”. También hace referencia al sistema de cambio fluctuante y la contención de la inflación a pesar de las turbulencias internacionales.

Momento mágico

Pocos minutos de conocerse la noticia, el presidente Lula apareció en televisión para elogiar la política económica de su Gobierno. “Ahora Brasil, que vive un momento mágico, ya es dueño de su propia nariz”, dijo Lula, visiblemente complacido. Lo mismo hizo el ministro de Economía, Guido Mantega, quien destacó, en una conferencia de prensa improvisada, la solidez de las instituciones económicas y la buena salud de la deuda pública y de las reservas internacionales (casi 200.000 millones de dólares), mientras que la deuda pública pasó de un 50,46% en relación con el producto interior bruto (PIB) en 2002 a un 41,24% en marzo de este año.

Lisa Schineller, directora para América Latina de Standard & Poor’s, explicó que la calificación alcanzada por Brasil como país seguro para las inversiones se ha debido a “un conjunto de factores positivos de la economía brasileña”. Entre ellos destacó la mejora en el perfil de la deuda y una demanda interna fuerte, capaz de sustentar niveles de inversión a largo plazo y de mejorar la renta.

“Brasil ha demostrado una mayor capacidad de resistencia a las eventuales crisis externas”, dijo Schineller, quien añadió que “existe hoy un compromiso importante en el Gobierno de mantener la inflación dentro de los parámetros previamente aceptados, al mismo tiempo que el Banco Central ha actuado de forma firme y totalmente independiente en este sentido”.

Rockefeller's descendants tell Exxon to face the reality of climate change

By Stephen Foley in New York
Thursday, 1 May 2008

The Independent Online

Descendants of John D Rockefeller, America's first and biggest oil industry magnate, say that ExxonMobil, a company spawned from his 19th-century monopoly Standard Oil, faces becoming obsolete if it does not step up the search for alternative fuels.

Fifteen family members yesterday went public in an attempt to get Exxon to face up to the realities of climate change, and they promised to join a shareholder rebellion to shake up the board to alter company's strategy.

"Kerosene was the alternative energy of its day when he realised it could replace whale oil," said Neva Rockefeller Goodwin, great-granddaughter of the oil Standard Oil founder. "Part of John D Rockefeller's genius was in recognising early the need and opportunity for a transition to a better, cheaper and cleaner fuel."

And Ms Goodwin, now an economist and environmentalist, added that Exxon was blinkered in its short-term pursuit of profits "from investments and decisions made many years ago, focusing on a narrow path that ignores the rapidly shifting energy landscape around the world, including developing nations".

The family's intervention came the day before Exxon reports what are expected to be profits of about $11bn (£5.5bn) for the first three months of the year. That figure, the equivalent of £1m every 25 minutes, could match Exxon's own record for the biggest quarterly profit in corporate history, thanks to record oil prices that yesterday stood at $114 per barrel.

Environmentalists have long pointed to Exxon as a villain of the climate change debate, since it denied a link between carbon emissions and global warming. Under its current chairman, Rex Tillerson, however, the company has softened its position, and focused on reducing the emissions from its operations.

The Rockefellers want the company to go much further, however. They are backing resolutions at the Exxon's shareholder meeting next month which call on the company to fund research into how climate change will affect developing nations. They believe a push into alternative fuels by Exxon and other major oil companies could improve the situation, and demand a new policy on funding alternative fuels.

They also want the company to set public goals for reducing carbon emissions from their output – targets which, if tough enough, would force the company to offer less-polluting products than oil and gas.

They are also demanding that Mr Tillerson split the roles of chairman and chief executive, a resolution which last year won 40 per cent of the vote.

"If the next 20 years of the energy business were just going to be about oil and gas, we probably wouldn't be here today," Peter O'Neill, head of the Rockefeller committee dealing with Exxon told reporters in New York. "Having an independent chairman leading an independent-thinking board of very experienced directors will substantially improve Exxon's ability to look the future squarely in the face."

John D Rockefeller's Standard Oil grew to monopolise the industry and the US courts broke it up into 34 separate companies 1911. Exxon and Mobil, which merged in 1999, were each descended from those new companies.

Gore fund raises $638m to tackle climate change

The fund management business led by Al Gore, the former US vice-president-turned-environmental campaigner, has raised $638m (£322m) to invest in companies developing new ways to tackle climate change.

Generation Investment Management, which is based in London, says it will put the money into renewable energy technologies, schemes to improve building efficiency, cleaner fossil fuels and sustainable agriculture and carbon markets. It is the second fund raised by Generation since its inception, and it underscores investors' increasing enthusiasm for "green-tech" ventures. Mr Gore set up the venture in 2004 with former staffers and alumni of Goldman Sachs, aiming to marry investment analysis with environmental research in the hunt for long-term financial returns.

David Blood, the former head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, who is Generation's managing partner, said the new Climate Change Fund would be an activist shareholder in public and private companies. "Sustainable development that addresses the climate crisis will be a significant driver of industrial and economic development over the coming decades," said Mr Blood.

Stephen Foley

Carnival time for Brazil's economy

Once an economic basket case, even by emerging market standards, Brazil has staged a remarkable recovery and now promises to become a major global power.
By Stephen Foley
Friday, 2 May 2008
The Inependent Online

It was an incongruous sight. King Carl XVI Gustaf, bespectacled monarch of Sweden, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the bush-bearded populist who has governed Brazil since 2003, riding a downtown bus in Stockholm last autumn. The reason the two men were there? A fleet of buses in the Swedish capital has been kitted out to run on ethanol, the biofuel that is fast becoming one of Brazil's most important exports, and the latest chapter in the country's remarkable economic "coming of age" story.

The Brazilian stock market, already buoyed by the boom in prices for the country's commodities and other exports, has surged to a record level this week on news that Standard & Poor's, the credit rating agency, has declared the country to be "investment grade". Specifically, that is a stamp of approval on Brazilian government debt, but it is also the culmination of Brazil's long slog away from financial crisis, hyper-inflation and democratic sclerosis. The country might finally be about to deliver on its promise as an economic power.

"Brazil is a success story and foreign investors believe in Brazil," said Rafael Amiel, an analyst at the research firm Global Insight. "There is economic stability, there is price stability, the public finances have shown a huge improvement and the economy is growing at a much more rapid pace than before."

The explosive growth of Brazil's ethanol production is typical of a country rich in natural resources and whose agricultural sector is regarded as one of the most efficient in the developing world. Brazil is the world's biggest producer of sugar and coffee, whose prices have been rising on global exchanges. It is also the world's biggest producer of iron ore, which is being greedily consumed by China and other developing nations.

And then there is oil. Two massive finds off Brazil's Atlantic coast have the potential to catapult the country into the world's top 10 producers over the next 10 years. Although the offshore fields will take time and money to develop, Petrobras, the state oil company, has already completed a series of promising test drills. Estimates of the exact size of the Tupi and Carioca fields vary, but the reserves have been acclaimed as the biggest oil finds for 30 years.

But Brazil's economic recovery from its financial crises of 1999 and 2002 – when it had to be bailed out by the International Monetary Fund – is based on more than just the boom in commodities prices. Manufactured goods account for 55 per cent of the country's exports. Companies such as Embraer, the aircraft maker, have emerged on to the world stage, showcasing an improving technological base in the country.

Lula's sales and marketing tour of Sweden is in keeping with his business-friendly leadership which, contrary to initial fears, maintained the gently reformist and fiscally responsible policies of his predecessor, Fernando Cardoso, and won praise from Standard & Poor's this week.

"Generally pragmatic and predictable policy and fairly transparent institutions have underpinned macroeconomic stability in Brazil," S&P analyst Lisa Schineller wrote. "This has facilitated a sounder foundation for economic growth and fiscal improvement over the past five years that should continue over the next several years."

Chief among the achievements of recent years is the taming of inflation. In 1993, it was 2,500 per cent. A new currency and an operationally independent central bank have kept it below 10 per cent for almost all of the past decade, and the central bank governor, Henrique Meirelles, has earned his credentials as an inflation-buster. His decision to hike interest rates last year in the face of rising food and fuel prices gave S&P confidence to upgrade Brazil's sovereign debt this week, much earlier than anyone had anticipated.

Global Insight's Mr Amiel praised the track record of Mr Meirelles. "In 2005, when the economy was slowing and inflation going up, the central bank was very aggressive in increasing interest rates – against all odds. It sent a clear signal that it would not allow high inflation any more. It said if the country goes into a recession, it goes into a recession. That meant that... little by little, prices stabilised."

With biofuels, investment in nuclear power and a sophisticated hydroelectricity programme, Brazil has achieved energy independence, while Lula's policy of paying families who keep their children in school has also helped blunt just a little of the social inequality. As a result foreign companies are pouring investment into the country. London-listed Eurasian Natural Resources, which yesterday paid $300m for the iron ore company Bahia Mineracao, is just the latest in a long line.

All of which has contributed to Brazil's ballooning reserves of foreign currency, which have grown to $200bn now from $85bn at the end of 2006 and $57bn at the end of 2005, when it finished paying off its IMF loans early. This cushion means the government can manage any short-term crisis very easily, if it were to come. The country is solid, and debt repayment capacity is not an issue.

The question for Brazil now turns from one of stability to one of growth. It is the B in the so-called Bric countries which promise super-size growth over the coming decades, but its 4.5 per cent rate lags Russia, India and China by some distance and it will continue to do so until it can haul its investment levels higher. Government debt remains high, at 44 per cent of GDP, and consumes significant sums in interest payments, with spending – particularly on pensions – continuing to worry economists. Only 16 per cent of Brazil's GDP is channeled into investment, compared with a Latin American average of 20 per cent and 40 per cent in China, but at least the percentage is creeping upwards.

The elevation to investment grade status should help matters, too, triggering a virtuous circle of lower sovereign debt interest costs and higher foreign investment. One of the reasons the Bovespa stock market index jumped on Wednesday was that a new cadre of overseas investors, barred from investing in sub-investment grade countries, can now buy into Brazilian companies.

Augusto de la Torre, the World Bank's chief economist for Latin America, said: "This formally opens the door to quite a bit of money in investors hands to support Brazil's development."

The timing of the S&P upgrade – in the midst of a global credit crisis and concerns over the economic outlook in North America – should be a big boost to private investor sentiment on Brazil, Mr de la Torre added.

A stable financial environment should also help Lula's government shift its focus to infrastructure investment – a key plank in Lula's re-election campaign in 2006 and vital if Brazil's economic growth rate is to be sustained. He is promising new roads, dams and railways, with tax incentives to help seal the deals.

"The country is vast and resourceful," said Global Insight's Mr Amiel. "It has plenty of natural resources and so much potential for expansion of its infrastructure and development. It has ample room to grow."

Lula is a reassuring figure

If you want to understand President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil – more popularly known simply as "Lula" – then think of him as a sort of South American version of Tony Blair, but with a better story. Lula believes as fervently as Bill Clinton or Blair ever did in the merits of the "third way", that half-forgotten piece of political philosophy that is about pragmatism, permanently triangulating conflict and a vaguely humanised form of capitalism.

Like Blair, Lula is there as a relatively reassuring figure to the international business community, a signal that Brazil is not hostile, and a welcome change form the statist military dictators who ran the country until the 1980s, and the Communists and Castro clones who occasionally crop up around Latin America.

"Before the Workers' Party came to power, people were afraid of us," Lula once said. "And they were right."

Lula has been reformist, partially privatising the public pensions system, creating an independent central bank and instituting a basic income for all poor families. As a result, Lula has succeeded where his more radical neighbour to the north in Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, has failed: in working with private companies to maximise his nation's economic potential.

Yet he has also strained to maintain good relation with President Chavez and with President Bush and tried to broker peace in the border conflict between Colombia and Venezuela.

As the leader of the Workers' Party of Brazil, possibly as misleading a label as "labour" became in the UK, Lula became President in 2002 with 61 per cent of the vote. His popularity has hardly waned since, and he was re-elected in 2006 in a similar landslide. Barring disaster, he will be around until 2011, but no longer, he says.

His personal story is an impressive, almost astonishing tale. He was brought up in poverty and began work as a shoe shiner at 12. Modern-day tourists in Rio and Sao Paulo encounter his successors, virtually begging for work from passers by, every day. His first wife died in childbirth in a run-down hospital and he lost a finger in an accident in a car parts factory. His rise in politics came via the trade union movement, and the foundation in 1980 of the Workers' Party. In 1986, he won a seat ion the Brazilian Congress, the start of his political career. Few world leaders can out-humble him.

Lula has overseen a rapidly growing economy, but one with an almost equally booming population, so growth in GDP per head has not been so impressive. Nonetheless this nation of almost 190 million, mainly younger people, and led by the charismatic Lula is laying claim to an increasing role as a leader of Latin America and of the wider developing world.

Corruption and splits are there, but a bigger voice in such bodies as the UN, the World Trade Organisation, the G7 and elsewhere for Brazil are bound to follow. We will be hearing a great deal more from Lula.

Sean O'Grady

Democrats and Fox News Make Friends

By BRIAN STELTER

Published: May 2, 2008
washingtonpost.com

Standing in front of a television camera last week, the chairman of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign, Terry McAuliffe, uttered four words that the Fox News Channel would not soon forget.

“Fair and balanced Fox!,” he exclaimed, noting that the network was the first to project Mrs. Clinton’s Pennsylvania primary win.

Fox executives could not have asked for a more rousing endorsement. The next day it showed up in promotions.

All of a sudden, the once-frosty relationship between Fox News and the Democratic candidates seems to have grown warmer. Mrs. Clinton and Barack Obama, who steadfastly refused to attend Fox-sponsored debates last year, are now giving plenty of interviews as they court Fox’s viewers, who are largely white, conservative and undecided.

“It’s probably true that we appeal to white working-class voters,” said Brit Hume, the network’s Washington managing editor and the host of “Special Report.” “The candidates are going where the voters are.”

Conversely, Fox seems to have softened its stance toward the Democrats, mindful of the intense viewer interest in the prolonged primary season. Although Fox News remains firmly in first place among news channels, CNN has crept up in the ratings on primary nights. So Fox wants to appeal to people who might otherwise flip the channel in search of more time with the Democrats.

In short, Fox News and the Democrats abruptly find each other useful.

“I think the candidates are starting to realize that they need to reach the people who we reach already,” said Marty Ryan, the network’s executive producer for political programming.

Last year the Democrats declined most of the network’s interview requests. Barack Obama rejected the network for so long that the show “Fox News Sunday” resorted to a public demand in March, showing a weekly “Obama Watch” clock that counted the days since the senator had promised an interview and failed to make good.

Then the thaw came. Mrs. Clinton has been on Fox 10 times this year, and Mr. Obama has appeared seven times, compared with three times for Mrs. Clinton and two times for Mr. Obama last year. Mr. Obama appeared on “Fox News Sunday” last week, perhaps in pursuit of moderate voters in Indiana and North Carolina.

On Wednesday and Thursday, Mrs. Clinton was questioned for an hour on “The O’Reilly Factor,” whose host, Bill O’Reilly, is something of a poster boy among liberal voters who think of Fox as the media arm of conservatives.

“You’re a polarizing personality,” Mr. O’Reilly chuckled during the interview. “You’re like I am, and I hate to say that,” he said. (Perhaps the same words could have been said to him by Mrs. Clinton, though they were not.)

The first part of the interview set a year-to-date viewership record for “The O’Reilly Factor,” according to Nielsen Media Research, with 3.66 million people tuning in, about one million above average.

Political calculations are evident on both sides. With Fox leading the coverage of the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.’s remarks, it was logical for Mr. Obama to appear on Fox and respond.

“In the end, they don’t do it for us — they do it for themselves,” said Chris Wallace, the host of “Fox News Sunday,” referring to the Democrats and their decisions to come on the show. He said that he assumed that Mr. Obama’s “defeats in Ohio and Pennsylvania convinced him that he needs to reach out to blue-collar, moderate and conservative Democratic voters.”

On Sunday, when Mr. Wallace will interview Howard Dean, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, it will mark the first time in 18 months that Mr. Dean has agreed to an interview on Fox.

Although Fox’s surveys show a big constituency among Republicans, whites and males, the network is by no means devoid of Democratic viewers. With an election studio dressed in flag-blue window frames and red-striped walls, Fox tries to play the patriotism card, hoping to attract viewers from both parties.

Perhaps because the Democratic race is so close, Fox faces stiffer competition for viewers than it did in the last presidential election cycle. This year CNN and, to a lesser extent, MSNBC have challenged Fox among the 25- to 54-year-olds coveted by advertisers. Yet the gains by CNN and MSNBC have largely come on primary nights, while Fox’s viewers return reliably every night, making Fox by far the most popular cable news channel.

In any given hour, nearly one million viewers are watching Fox News, compared with about 600,000 for CNN and 380,000 for MSNBC. The consistent ratings have long been a boon for its parent, the News Corporation, whose cable segment has posted a 23 percent increase in profit in the last quarter of 2007.

Exxon Posts Its 2nd-Best Quarter, but It’s Not Enough for Wall St.

By JAD MOUAWAD

Published: May 2, 2008
washingtonpost.com

Exxon Mobil reported the second-best quarterly profit in its history on Thursday — and investors could barely hide their disappointment.

Exxon, the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, said its net income rose 17 percent in the first quarter, buoyed by high oil prices. But that was less than Wall Street expected, and Exxon’s shares fell 3.6 percent, to close at $89.70.

Moreover, the company’s report displayed fresh difficulties in its core business, with oil production dropping sharply compared with the quarter a year earlier.

Crude oil prices have flirted with records, lifting corporate profits throughout the industry to new heights. But they are also masking an increasingly difficult business environment, marked by rising costs, tightening access to oil fields, and declining profit for refineries.

For the big oil companies, extraordinary profits have turned into a somewhat incongruous embarrassment of riches. Rising gasoline and diesel fuel prices have created resentment among drivers and truckers against the oil companies that could especially resonate in an election year.

The high crude oil prices are translating into record retail gasoline costs in the United States. Regular gasoline was selling Thursday for an average of $3.62 a gallon, according to AAA, the automobile club, up from less than $3 a year ago. Diesel fuel averaged $4.25 a gallon.

Few energy specialists expect oil prices to drop much this year. Oil for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 94 cents on Thursday, to $112.52 a barrel.

While energy companies have little control over the price of oil, which is set on commodities markets, they have benefited immensely from the rally. In the last week, BP, Royal Dutch Shell and ConocoPhillips all reported big jumps in their profits.

Exxon is admired in the industry for its spending discipline and skill at managing complex projects. But this quarter, its profits fell short of Wall Street forecasts. Exxon’s net income was $10.9 billion, or $2.03 a share, up from $9.3 billion, or $1.62 a share a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had forecast $2.13 a share.

That level of profitability still makes last quarter Exxon’s second most lucrative, after the record $11.7 billion it earned in the fourth quarter of 2007. Last year, the company reported a profit of $40.6 billion, the biggest annual profit by an American company.

Still, Brian M. Youngberg, an oil analyst at Edward Jones, said: “Investing comes down to expectations and the expectations were pretty high, especially after BP and Shell reported pretty good outlooks. And Exxon didn’t quite deliver.”

In particular, investors focused on a sharp production drop caused by a government takeover of Exxon’s assets in Venezuela, the decline of fields in the United States and lower quantities in West Africa.

Exxon’s oil output dropped almost 10 percent in the first quarter, to 2.47 million barrels a day, compared with the quarter last year, as production fell in every region except Russia and the Caspian. Even disregarding the effect of the events in Venezuela, Exxon’s production fell 6 percent.

Its output of natural gas rose by a little more than 1 percent, to 10.2 billion cubic feet a day.

Paul Sankey, an analyst with Deutsche Bank, commented in a note: “Deeply concerned about future energy supply, the market wants growth, growth and growth. Exxon Mobil does not offer that right now.”

Part of the drop in production came from the structure of some international contracts, under which oil companies must give a larger share of the oil they produce back to the host governments as prices rise.

Higher prices and a rush to drill new wells have also contributed to sharp inflation in the industry, with exploration and production costs more than doubling in recent years. As a result, oil companies have had difficulty increasing their oil and gas output.

Some analysts said Exxon was slow in recent years to increase its investments in response to the higher costs but is now responding more aggressively. In the first quarter, Exxon lifted its spending on capital and exploration projects by 30 percent, to $5.5 billion.

From 2002 to 2006, the company spent more than $15 billion each year for oil and gas production and development. Its capital expenses last year rose to $21 billion, and they are expected to average $25 billion to $30 billion from 2008 to 2012.

Exxon expects to start a dozen projects this year, including two large natural gas facilities in Qatar and offshore oil developments in Angola and the Gulf of Mexico. The company said it had a portfolio of 119 projects around the world with reserves equivalent to 24 billion barrels of oil. Earnings from exploration and production increased 45 percent, to $8.79 billion.

“Our production outlook for the future is strong,” Kenneth P. Cohen, Exxon’s vice president for public affairs, said in a conference call. But he added, “We are not immune to the cost pressures that the industry is facing in general.”

In refining, profit margins have plummeted as refiners were unable to pass through all the increases in crude oil prices. One company, Sunoco, said Wednesday that it had a first-quarter loss of $59 million because of weak refining margins.

Exxon said its refining margins dropped last quarter, reducing its profit from refining operations by 39 percent, to $1.17 billion, from the period a year earlier.

Exxon sold 6.8 million barrels a day of petroleum products, down 377,000 barrels a day.

Oil executives have been called before Congress to defend their profits in the last two years. As energy prices keep rising, there has been support for a windfall profits tax on oil companies.

The record prices at the pump have entered the presidential debate, with Senators John McCain and Hillary Rodham Clinton calling for a suspension of the federal gasoline tax this summer. Senator Barack Obama opposes the idea as counterproductive — a view shared by many economists, who argue that lowering taxes would encourage more consumption, adding to pressure on supplies.

Exxon and other companies contend that the last time a windfall tax was imposed, in the 1980s, domestic oil production fell and gasoline prices rose as a result.

Iran Protests to U.N. About Clinton Comments

May 1, 2008, 5:47 pm
By Nazila Fathi
washingtonpost.com

TEHRAN — Iran has lodged a formal protest at the United Nations about comments by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton that the United States would “totally obliterate” Iran if it attacked Israel with nuclear weapons, the state-run news agency, IRNA, reported Thursday.

Iran’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Mehdi Danesh-Yazdi, sent a letter of protest on Wednesday to the United Nations secretary general and the United Nations Security Council denouncing the remarks, according to IRNA.

Mrs. Clinton made the comments in an interview on ABC last week. “I want the Iranians to know that if I’m the president, we will attack Iran,” she said when she was asked what she would do if Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons. “In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them,” she added.

Mr. Danesh-Yazdi wrote in the letter that Mrs. Clinton’s comments were “provocative, unwarranted and irresponsible” and “a flagrant violation” of the United Nations charter, IRNA reported.

“I wish to reiterate my government’s position that the Islamic Republic of Iran has no intention to attack any other nation,” the letter said.

Nonetheless “Iran would not hesitate to act in self-defense to respond to any attack against the Iranian nation and to take appropriate defensive measures to protect itself,” the letter added.

On Tuesday, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran told reporters during a trip to New Delhi, the Indian capital, that he believed that neither Mrs. Clinton nor Senator Barack Obama, the other Democratic presidential candidate, had a chance of winning the election.

“Do you think a black candidate would be allowed to be president in the U.S.?” he asked, the semiofficial Mehr News Agency reported. “We don’t think Mr. Obama will be allowed to become the U.S. president.”

Referring to Mrs. Clinton, he said, “Presidency of a woman in a country that boasts its gunmanship is unlikely.”

Loss and Furor Take Toll on Obama, Poll Finds

By ROBIN TONER and MEGAN THEE

Published: May 1, 2008
washingtonpost.com

WASHINGTON — Senator Barack Obama’s aura of inevitability in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination has diminished after his loss in the Pennsylvania primary and amid the furor over his former pastor, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

The poll was conducted Friday through Tuesday, largely before Mr. Obama’s news conference on Tuesday, in which he denounced his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., and may not have fully captured the impact of the controversy or Mr. Obama’s response.

But the survey found that Mr. Obama, whose lead in the race for the delegates needed to secure the nomination has given him a commanding position over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton since February, is now perceived to be in a much tighter fight. Fifty-one percent of Democratic primary voters say they expect Mr. Obama to win their party’s nomination, down from 69 percent a month ago. Forty-eight percent of Democrats say he is the candidate with the best chance of beating Senator John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican nominee, down from 56 percent a month ago.

Mr. Obama, of Illinois, still holds an edge over Mrs. Clinton, of New York, on several key measures; for example, 46 percent of the Democratic primary voters said he remained their choice for the nomination, while 38 percent preferred Mrs. Clinton, down from 43 percent last month, and she has lost support among men in recent weeks. Mr. Obama also has an advantage over Mrs. Clinton in ratings on honesty and integrity and in being less beholden to special interest groups.

But a month of upheaval — including a nearly 10-point loss to Mrs. Clinton in Pennsylvania — has taken a toll, and not just on Mr. Obama: 56 percent of Democrats described their party as divided. In contrast, 60 percent of Republicans see their party as unified, a striking turnaround from the Republican turmoil at the start of the primary season.

Adding to the volatility is the economy. Anxiety over that issue, already high a month ago, has continued to climb. More than 4 in 10 voters cited the economy as the one issue they want the candidates to address, up from about 30 percent in a CBS News Poll in mid-March. (Only the war, cited by 17 percent, came close.)

Democrats see no early end to the Obama-Clinton battle, the poll found. About 7 in 10 Democratic voters predict that their party’s nominee will not be decided before the convention in August. And a plurality of voters say this will eventually hurt their party’s chances against Mr. McCain.

“I don’t think either one of them would ever concede,” Andrew Antonucci, a 66-year-old Democrat and retired firefighter from Arlington, Mass., said in a follow-up interview. “It’ll go down to the wire.”

Robert Mobley, 28, a Democrat and motor coach operator in Orlando, Fla., said: “People can’t figure out who they want to choose. Sadly, I don’t think it’s really a political issue. I think it’s more like a ‘what kind of history do we want to set?’ issue. Do we want to break the race barrier or the gender barrier?”

Still, there is resistance to the idea of party leaders stepping in to resolve the fight. Even among Democrats who said a lengthy battle would hurt the party, a majority said the contest should continue until one candidate clearly wins the delegate count.

The poll was conducted as Mr. Wright dominated political news with a series of speeches and appearances; among other incendiary claims, he suggested that the United States was attacked by terrorists because it had itself engaged in terrorism.

The nationwide telephone poll was conducted with 1,065 adults, 956 of them registered voters; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points over all, and plus or minus five percentage points among those who say they have voted or will vote in a Democratic primary or caucus.

The survey suggests a very competitive race this November regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. In a head-to-head race between Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain, both candidates are backed by 45 percent of the registered voters. In a race between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain, 48 percent back Mrs. Clinton and 43 percent support Mr. McCain.

The weakening economy showed up in the poll in personal ways: As food and gas prices soar, more Americans say they are having a hard time saving or buying extras. Thirty-eight percent said they could do so in February, while just 27 percent said so in the latest poll.

President Bush continues to get low marks on his overall job performance, with just 21 percent approving of his handling of the economy. Given those ratings, Mr. McCain faces a political challenge in establishing his own identity: about half of all voters say they expect him to continue Mr. Bush’s policies if elected, while 1 in 5 say his policies will be even more conservative.

The challenge facing Mr. McCain also shows up on foreign policy: a majority of voters said they preferred that the next president try to end the war in Iraq within the next few years; they overwhelmingly said it was more important to have a nominee who was flexible about withdrawing the troops than someone committed to staying in Iraq until the United States succeeds.

For the Democrats, supporters of Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton are digging in, with two-thirds in each camp saying they “strongly support” their candidate. But Democrats are open to the idea of a Clinton-Obama or an Obama-Clinton ticket. About 6 in 10 Democrats said they would like to see the winner take the other candidate as a running mate.

Each of the three presidential candidates has clear strengths and weaknesses. More voters have confidence in Mrs. Clinton’s and Mr. McCain’s ability to “wisely” handle an international crisis than feel that way about Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain, on the other hand, get higher ratings than Mrs. Clinton when it comes to “having more honesty and integrity than most people in public life.”

And the two Democrats edge out Mr. McCain when it comes to caring about the needs and problems of average Americans.

Republicans are already trying to portray Mr. Obama as a liberal who is outside the mainstream of American values, but the poll suggests that — so far, at least — he is not viewed that way by most Americans. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters said they believed he shared their values, about the same number who felt that way about Mr. McCain (58 percent said Mrs. Clinton shared their values).

But Mr. Obama has vulnerabilities. Only 29 percent of registered voters said they considered him “very patriotic,” compared with 40 percent who described Mrs. Clinton that way. Mr. McCain, a former prisoner of war, was considered “very patriotic” by 70 percent of the registered voters.

The underlying political landscape continues to favor the Democrats, despite their divisions. Over all, 52 percent said they had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, compared with 33 percent who said that about the Republican Party.

Marjorie Connelly, Marina Stefan and Dalia Sussman contributed reporting.